Potentially Hazardous Asteroid 2024 YR4: Risk Remains Uncertain

Observations Increase Concern, Not Confidence

Although astronomers around the globe have collected hundreds of new observations of Asteroid 2024 YR4, the chance of an impact in 2032 remains stubbornly high. In fact, NASA recently revised its estimate to a 1.4% probability, up from the initial 1.2%. The European Space Agency (ESA) now projects a possible approach at just 0.0005 AU (around 75,000 km) but acknowledges uncertainties of ±0.0025 AU (roughly 370,000 km).

IAWN’s First Assessment

The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), coordinated by NASA, released an initial hazard summary indicating 2024 YR4 could remain visible from Earth until around April. If further observations fail to rule out an impact by then, astronomers might have to wait until 2028 for more definitive data. The IAWN also highlights potential impact zones spanning the eastern Pacific, northern South America, the Atlantic, Central Africa, the Persian Gulf, and southern Asia—all tied to the asteroid’s possible path in late December 2032.

Top of Risk Lists, Still on the Torino Scale 3

Discovered on December 27 using a Chilean telescope, 2024 YR4 leads multiple global watchlists of hazardous near-Earth objects. It remains at Level 3 on the Torino Scale, meaning it merits attention not only from professional astronomers but also from the public and policy-makers. Despite that, experts reiterate the most likely outcome remains a miss, and further observations typically reduce such risks over time.

Growing Catalog of Images

As global tracking continues, the Very Large Telescope (VLT) of the European Southern Observatory (ESO) and NASA have both released compelling new images of 2024 YR4. An IAWN visualization underscores how widely the predicted close-approach distances vary, underscoring the asteroid’s still-uncertain trajectory. Current estimates place its diameter between 40 and 90 meters, large enough to cause notable local or regional damage if it were to collide with Earth.

Potential Impact and Historical Comparisons

Even objects measuring just 18 meters across have caused casualties in past events, while those over 56 meters can excavate a crater. Experts reference historical incidents like the 1908 Tunguska airburst as cautionary examples. With 2024 YR4 continuing to draw global scrutiny, this discovery further illustrates the importance of planetary defense initiatives and rapid-response observation campaigns.