Webb Telescope Refines Asteroid 2024 YR4’s Lunar Impact Odds
New James Webb data narrow 2024 YR4’s orbit by 20 %, nudging its chance of striking the Moon in 2032 from 3.8 % to 4.3 %—while keeping Earth safe.
Read articleDecember 22, 2032
Potential Earth Impact in 2032
For centuries, 2024 YR4 wandered unseen in the vast darkness of space, likely originating from the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.
On December 27, 2024, astronomers in Chile spotted its silent approach—just two days after it had passed Earth at a distance twice that of the Moon.
But it’s coming back. On December 22, 2032, its path will bring it within 66,000 miles—close enough that its fate, and ours, remains uncertain. Will it pass us by, or will gravity pull it onto a collision course? Every new observation brings us closer to the answer.
0.27%
Impact Probability It Will Hit The Earth
4.30%
Impact Probability It Will Hit The Moon
Latest Developments & Observations of
Asteroid 2024 YR4.
Stay informed with breaking announcements, new data releases, and expert insights from NASA, ESA, and astronomers around the globe. Explore all the latest findings shaping our understanding of Asteroid 2024 YR4.
Blog Posts
Asteroid 2024 YR4: Hockey-Puck Shape and Surprising Origins
Gemini South reveals a flat, fast-spinning asteroid likely pushed from the inner belt by Jupiter, and it still carries a slim chance of striking the Moon in 2032.
Read articleAsteroid 2024 YR4: Impact Now Almost Ruled Out
New observations have sharply lowered the chance of a 2032 collision, reducing the asteroid's danger classification.
Read articleAsteroid YR4: Impact Probability Doubles — How Dangerous Is It Really?
Recent NASA data suggests the risk of an asteroid impact in 2032 has nearly doubled, yet experts still foresee a mostly harmless scenario.
Read article