Asteroid YR4: Impact Probability Doubles — How Dangerous Is It Really?
Impact Probability Reaches 3.1%
According to the latest NASA assessments, the odds of Asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in December 2032 have nearly doubled over the past two months. This development, reported by several international news agencies, has sparked renewed concern about the potential for significant destruction — including large-scale tsunamis or devastation of urban areas.
However, despite this jump, the actual risk of an impact remains relatively low, currently standing at 3.1%. In other words, only about one in 32 scenarios is expected to result in an Earth collision.
What Scientists Are Saying
Research teams have modeled the hypothetical collision in detail. If 2024 YR4 were to impact Earth on its projected date of 22 December 2032, possible contact zones include:
- The eastern Pacific Ocean
- The northern region of South America
- Portions of the Atlantic Ocean
- Africa, the Arabian Sea, or South Asia
At around 40–90 meters across, 2024 YR4 is large enough to cause local or regional damage but nowhere near the size of the massive asteroids that can trigger global extinctions. In essence, planetary defense experts are closely monitoring it, yet they emphasize that a 96.9% chance remains that it will miss us entirely.
A Danger That Could Decline
Even though the collision probability has risen in recent weeks, experience with similar NEOs (near-Earth objects) suggests it will likely drop back to near zero as new data refines the asteroid’s path. This was the case with Apophis in 2004, which at one point had a 2.7% impact chance but was later removed from all risk lists.
According to Bruce Betts of the Planetary Society, it is common for initial calculations to show higher risk levels, then fall off as more precise observations arrive. This ongoing analysis may cause the probability to climb slightly in the short term before plummeting as the orbit becomes clearer.
No “Dinosaur-Killer”
To offer perspective, (99942) Apophis once seemed like a major threat but ultimately posed no harm. And while a 14-kilometer-wide asteroid famously led to the extinction of the dinosaurs some 66 million years ago, 2024 YR4 is far smaller.
“This is not a dinosaur-killer. This is not a planet-killer,”
explains Richard Moissl of the European Space Agency (ESA), speaking to media in a comparison with the asteroid that ended the dinosaurs.
Origins and Recent Discovery
- Name and Date: Officially designated 2024 YR4 in December 2024, after being observed at the El Sauce Observatory in Chile.
- Approximate Diameter: 40 to 90 meters
- Long-Term Outlook: Scientists expect the probability to keep evolving in the coming months, especially as telescopes continue to track the asteroid and refine its orbit.
Past Close Calls
The last time an asteroid exhibited comparable odds was with Apophis in 2004, which briefly held a record-setting 2.7% chance of collision. That figure fell to zero after extensive additional observations and is a testament to how dynamic asteroid tracking can be.
Key Takeaways
- Impact Chance Doubled: The probability stands at 3.1%, nearly twice what it was just months ago.
- Still Low Risk: A 96.9% chance of missing Earth remains.
- Potential Destruction: Coastal inundations, localized damage to inhabited areas.
- Likely to Decrease: Historical precedent suggests impact odds usually fall as more data refines the asteroid’s trajectory.
- No Global Threat: At 40–90 meters wide, 2024 YR4 does not pose a planet-wide danger.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 exemplifies how freshly discovered near-Earth objects can generate concern, especially when initial data yields slightly higher collision odds. Yet in most cases, ongoing observations provide a clearer picture, often leading to a downgrade of any potential threat. For now, experts advise vigilance but also stress that there is no imminent cause for alarm.