Asteroid 2024 YR4: Impact Now Almost Ruled Out

Risk Drops to Near Zero

Recent observations indicate that Asteroid 2024 YR4 is far less likely to strike Earth in 2032 than initially feared. Updated calculations place NASA’s impact probability at 0.27% and ESA’s even lower, at 0.14%. Reflecting this improved outlook, the asteroid’s classification on the Torino Scale has been downgraded from Level 3 to Level 1, meaning it is no longer deemed unusually dangerous.

Key Insight: Within the next few days, these probabilities are expected to drop to zero, firmly establishing that 2024 YR4 will pass within the Moon’s orbit but remain at a safe distance from Earth.

A Brief Period of Record-Breaking Risk

Discovered on December 27, just after its most recent flyby, the 40–90 meter asteroid topped ESA and NASA threat lists for several weeks—an unusually long time. At one point, its collision likelihood rose higher than any previously observed large near-Earth object, staying above 1% longer than any comparable asteroid on record. Thanks to fresh data, that elevated risk phase has now ended.

Webb Observations Likely Unnecessary

Future observations planned for the James Webb Space Telescope in early March and late May may no longer be needed to confirm 2024 YR4’s path. Those observations were set to refine the asteroid’s orbit and size in case a collision couldn’t be ruled out. Since the probability has effectively dropped to negligible levels, the extensive measuring campaign—intended to differentiate between a possible 40 m vs. 90 m diameter—may be unnecessary.

UN-Recognized Networks Activated

Concerns about a possible impact in December 2032 prompted official responses from two United Nations–endorsed organizations:

• International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), coordinated by NASA
• Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), operating under ESA

These groups met to evaluate and recommend monitoring 2024 YR4. Additionally, OHB, a German aerospace company, recently acknowledged exploring potential deflection measures. Given the newly reduced impact odds, these contingency plans appear superfluous.

Key Takeaways

• Impact Probability: Lowered to 0.27% (NASA) and 0.14% (ESA), heading toward zero.
• Torino Scale: Downgraded from 3 to 1, indicating minimal risk.
• Future Observations: The James Webb campaign may be canceled if further ground-based data confirms total safety.
• Historical Context: This asteroid briefly held a record for prolonged risk above 1%, but advanced observations have ended that threat.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 no longer appears to pose any serious threat, underscoring how dynamic NEO tracking can be. Although it remained in the spotlight for weeks, refined data suggests another routine near miss—an important reminder of why continuous observation campaigns remain vital for planetary defense and public reassurance.